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Author Archives: rodroth
Sublime Paradox
“…What is involuntary human nature.” This “involuntary” is very true, very beautiful, very well observed, and this observation is new. —Joubert, 1818 Today is Saturday, and a gorgeous day. After the gloom and rain and cold last week, the thing … Continue reading
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On The Problem of Getting It Right
“Is there anything I can do to make myself enlightened?” “As little as you can do to make the sun rise in the morning.” “Then of what use are the spiritual exercises you prescribe?” “To make sure you are not … Continue reading
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Ode To Bagholders
These are the only genuine ideas, the ideas of the shipwrecked. All the rest is rhetoric, posturing, farce. –Jose Ortega y Gasset Habit dulls the imagination. After the first stock market drop a few weeks ago a friend said, “I … Continue reading
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NOT A GOOD OUTLOOK
OVERSTAYING A BULL MARKET Most investors make money in a bull market, only to lose all profits made–and sometimes more, in the readjustment that inevitably follows. –The New York Times, September 22, 1929 I’m writing this piece as the Dow … Continue reading
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On The Mindset Problem
It has never been my objective in these essays to call the top of a bull market. It matters not if I managed that if I didn’t have the proper frame of mind to take action well before the turn … Continue reading
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An Extraordinary Moment Dead Ahead
Everything unwilling to change, will die Everything that changes, dies only a little —Ray McManus, Red Dirt Jesus I’m not gonna lie, I don’t know if the DJI topped today, or has another 300-500 points rally left before making its … Continue reading
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My View, August 7, 2018
He: There is no reason the market has to do what you say. Me: What is the reason for there to be no reason? The conversation ended there. The history of the market is the history of forgetting. Thucydides’ comment … Continue reading
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What Corporate Insiders Are Doing (Again!)
You should be very angry if you own any stocks. Insiders, namely senior executives at major corporations are again doing what they have historically done at important tops: using corporate cash and borrowings to do stock buybacks for their companies … Continue reading
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Bear Market Resuming?
Based on my Elliott Wave Count, together with data on investor sentiment and momentum, I’m giving an eighty percent probability that the upward corrective action in stocks since the January 9th low is about over. If so, the next wave … Continue reading
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Wobbly Life At An Historic Top In The Stock Market
Not my favorite subject today, I’m not gonna lie to you. On January 26, 2018 the American stock market made the final top in the Grand Supercycle bull market that began in 1784. The previous top of similar degree occurred … Continue reading
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