Author Archives: rodroth

Jim Stockdale 1924-2005

On Memoriam By Rod RothJuly, 2005 “The important thing is not what they have made of you, but what you have made of what they have made of you.” –Sartre Vice Admiral James B. Stockdale (ret.) died June 5, 2005. … Continue reading

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The Probability Problem

The mind wants to know all the world, all eternity, even God. The mind’s sidekick, however, will settle for two eggs over easy. —Annie Dillard, Teaching a Stone to Talk If you are on my distribution list, you got an … Continue reading

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On Being A Sucker

The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor even that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is … Continue reading

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On Being A Dimwit

There is no guarantee, no ultimate formula for success. It all comes down to intelligently and relentlessly seeking solutions that will increase your chances of prevailing. When you do that, the score will take care of itself. —Bill Walsh, former … Continue reading

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Dealing With Market Ambiguity

It was the clearest of signals in that first week of October 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite all could be labeled as having five complete waves at multiple degrees of trend, signaling the … Continue reading

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Sublime Paradox

“…What is involuntary human nature.” This “involuntary” is very true, very beautiful, very well observed, and this observation is new. —Joubert, 1818 Today is Saturday, and a gorgeous day. After the gloom and rain and cold last week, the thing … Continue reading

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On The Problem of Getting It Right

“Is there anything I can do to make myself enlightened?” “As little as you can do to  make the sun rise in the morning.” “Then of what use are the spiritual exercises you prescribe?” “To make sure you are not … Continue reading

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Ode To Bagholders

These are the only genuine ideas, the ideas of the shipwrecked. All the rest is rhetoric, posturing, farce. –Jose Ortega y Gasset Habit dulls the imagination. After the first stock market drop a few weeks ago a friend said, “I … Continue reading

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NOT A GOOD OUTLOOK

OVERSTAYING A BULL MARKET Most investors make money in a bull market, only to lose all profits made–and sometimes more, in the readjustment that inevitably follows. –The New York Times, September 22, 1929 I’m writing this piece as the Dow … Continue reading

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On The Mindset Problem

It has never been my objective in these essays to call the top of a bull market. It matters not if I managed that if I didn’t have the proper frame of mind to take action well before the turn … Continue reading

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