Author Archives: rodroth

Ode To Bagholders

These are the only genuine ideas, the ideas of the shipwrecked. All the rest is rhetoric, posturing, farce. –Jose Ortega y Gasset Habit dulls the imagination. After the first stock market drop a few weeks ago a friend said, “I … Continue reading

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NOT A GOOD OUTLOOK

OVERSTAYING A BULL MARKET Most investors make money in a bull market, only to lose all profits made–and sometimes more, in the readjustment that inevitably follows. –The New York Times, September 22, 1929 I’m writing this piece as the Dow … Continue reading

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On The Mindset Problem

It has never been my objective in these essays to call the top of a bull market. It matters not if I managed that if I didn’t have the proper frame of mind to take action well before the turn … Continue reading

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An Extraordinary Moment Dead Ahead

Everything unwilling to change, will die Everything that changes, dies only a little —Ray McManus, Red Dirt Jesus I’m not gonna lie, I don’t know if the DJI topped today, or has another 300-500 points rally left before making its … Continue reading

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My View, August 7, 2018

He: There is no reason the market has to do what you say. Me: What is the reason for there to be no reason? The conversation ended there. The history of the market is the history of forgetting. Thucydides’ comment … Continue reading

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What Corporate Insiders Are Doing (Again!)

You should be very angry if you own any stocks. Insiders, namely senior executives at major corporations are again doing what they have historically done at important tops: using corporate cash and borrowings to do stock buybacks for their companies … Continue reading

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Bear Market Resuming?

Based on my Elliott Wave Count, together with data on investor sentiment and momentum, I’m giving an eighty percent probability that the upward corrective action in stocks since the January 9th low is about over. If so, the next wave … Continue reading

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Wobbly Life At An Historic Top In The Stock Market

Not my favorite subject today, I’m not gonna lie to you. On January 26, 2018 the American stock market made the final top in the Grand Supercycle bull market that began in 1784. The previous top of similar degree occurred … Continue reading

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Two Views On What’s Next

On January 26 I posted an essay in which I said: “…the market is in the process of coming to a catastrophic end.” (Newer readers can view the entire essay by scrolling down past this one.) Shortly after reading my post, … Continue reading

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The Bull Market of 1932-2018

This wont take long: stock owners should be aware that the U.S. stock market is now in  the process of coming to a catastrophic end. Rising hundreds of points day after day turns an investment arena into a gambling den … Continue reading

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