At The Eve Of A Historical Turning Point

Suppose Trump fails to make America great again. His detractors will feel vindicated. His defenders will claim Force Majeure. Both will probably be half right.

The most likely outcome of forty-five’s tenure is that he is the Dynamic Value philosopher/writer Robert Pirsig talks about. Every organization, be it political or otherwise, develops a set of Stable Values which, over time, become denigrated. Entrenched interests exert enough power to prevent meaningful changes until the appearance of a Dynamic Value to shock the system into chaos. The change comes, not from the Dynamic Value, but from the collapse that it (or he) causes.

The Socionomic Theory of Finance posits that the final wave of the Grand Supercycle Bull Market that got underway in the mid 1700’s should peak this year. This wave, which began with the lows of 1932 had its most productive phase between 1941 and 1966. After the correction that ended in 1974, the fifth and final wave got underway, and as is normal in fifth waves, has been speculative, economically benefitting ever fewer people, with increasing debt and corruption.

Entrenched interests have fought to get more for themselves and succeeded. The majority of the population of the globe is fed up, now agitating for radical change. But desirable change in America is more likely to come after a bear market of a dimension the like of which no one alive has witnessed has bottomed. That bottom should be long after Trump has left office. We should be prepared for a very difficult time, and for tremendous disappointment on the part of those who believe Trump will give them what they want.



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