On Forecasts and Forecasting

Posted on December 30, 2011 by rodroth

“If trouble comes when you least expect it then maybe the thing to do is to always expect it.” ― Cormac McCarthy, The Road Citing a ten percent increase in this year’s occupancy rates over 2010, area hoteliers (our principal industry being tourism) … Continue reading →

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Adios Phony Rally

Posted on December 20, 2011 by rodroth

A few days ago, a friend told me I should read Ron Paul’s Meltdown:A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts will Make Things Worse, which was published February 9, 2009, almost exactly at the … Continue reading →

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Late for Class

Posted on December 13, 2011 by rodroth

Recently, columnist Ben Stein wrote: …suddenly it dawned on me. It will be worse about EVERYTHING. Too much of the younger generation has minimal education. Minimal decent work attitudes (generally, not always). Minimal ability to get along with others. The … Continue reading →

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Tide Receding (Definitely)

Posted on December 2, 2011 by rodroth
Monthly Dow

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You could say I lost my belief in the politicians They all seem like game show hosts to me                         —Sting It is six thirty-five of a weekday evening and Brian Williams, anchor man on NBC’s Evening News says to financial … Continue reading →

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Game On!

Posted on November 29, 2011 by rodroth
Tim Tebow

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Never underestimate the heart of a champion!             —Coach Rudi Tomjanovich Football, say  socionomists, is a bear market sport. It is violent, brutal, and provides emotional release from the tedium of hard times. OK, but I think it’s insanely fun all the … Continue reading →

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Sensible Investing is So Not Random

Posted on November 4, 2011 by rodroth

This essay was published first in September 2007 Sensible investing works all the time. We don’t have to be born in the right century or be gifted with uncommon talent. We just have to be rigorous in our buying discipline. … Continue reading →

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On Starting Something

Posted on October 26, 2011 by rodroth

On the matter of how to spend the weekend: You could spend it reading Retirement Heist: How Companies Plunder and Profit from the Nest eggs of American Workers, by Ellen Schultz, who, over a number of years of digging through SEC and IRS … Continue reading →

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Trumping Uncertainty

Posted on October 19, 2011 by rodroth
Great by Choice

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You think you’re above average (we all think we’re above average). For argument’s sake, let’s say you are. More, you’re brilliant, generally regarded as tops in your field. Will that save your bacon if your “field” implodes? Are you prepared to function in the … Continue reading →

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On Chaos as Normal

Posted on October 14, 2011 by rodroth
SP 500 hist

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A speculative party for the ages ended in the Spring of 2000, capping a sixty-eight year bull market in stocks. Quite abruptly, the bubble morphed into a Grand Supercycle bear market. So far,  a first leg down, bottoming in ’03,  led to a revisiting of the … Continue reading →

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Spinmeisters at Work

Posted on October 10, 2011 by rodroth

While eating your Cheerios this morning, you did a double take on the headline for the lead article in the New York Times: Recession Officially Over, U.S. Incomes Kept Falling. ‘Splain that one to me, you said. Easy. “Official” designations of … Continue reading →

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