Category Archives: Essential Essays

On What Infuences My Thinking

Decision Making In Uncertainty  Two Paradigms: Mechanist and Socionomic The Mechanist Paradigm: Action is followed by reaction. Most financial analysts, economists, historians, sociologists and futurists believe that society works the same way. They typically say, Because so-and-so has happened, it … Continue reading

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All About Me

Here’s the elevator version: I was born in Tokyo, Japan, then went to live in Buenos Aires, Argentina, then Lima, Peru and then Montevideo, Uruguay, all before I was ten. At thirteen, I was sent to boarding school in San Marcos, Texas, where … Continue reading

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On the Inevitability of Change

If something cannot go on forever, it will stop –Herb Stein The U.S. stock market does its death defying dance in the face of underlying weaknesses in the system. Europe is now preoccupied with the technical bankruptcy of its major … Continue reading

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When Getting Pissed Off Is A Good Thing

A false sense of security is the only kind here is –M. Meade Well, you can wait around, but eventually you’ll do a hard stare at the economy and realize that the next ten years are going to suck unless you happen to have … Continue reading

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File Notes: What Successful Investing Is

I come to kill you —Leo Durocher, baseball player Durocher played the game the only way it should be played. He also said, “Nice guys finish last.” That’s you if you think you can win in the stock market without … Continue reading

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Investing in Innovation

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“Is it a new idea, or is it just new  to me?” The pertinent question He’s been a trader at a bank for a number of years, but he obviously still needs some seasoning. “I can’t see not owning Apple,” … Continue reading

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To Explain a Few Things

Anything I have to offer in the way of investment wisdom has come to me in the normal fashion: I’ve screwed up in the markets. Repeatedly. If there was ever a way to do it wrong, I mastered it. But screwing up is what got … Continue reading

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Sensible Investing is So Not Random

This essay was published first in September 2007 Sensible investing works all the time. We don’t have to be born in the right century or be gifted with uncommon talent. We just have to be rigorous in our buying discipline. … Continue reading

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Working Without a Net

… just tryin’ to make the right mistake…                                             —The Band  I’m looking to do an end run on the behavior model, here. The standard is to learn about a thing by stepping in it. Market pros will tell you everything … Continue reading

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A Rational Plan

First published August 21, 2004 To invest in the stock market is to plunge into an emotionally charged arena fraught with erratic and random price fluctuation. We are dealing in probability and most people struggle with the uncertainty and behave … Continue reading

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