Author Archives: rodroth

Indian Summer

It is said that the market climbs a wall of worry. That is certainly so in the first leg up. Just when it seems the problems of the recent depression are being dealt with, a break in the action pulls … Continue reading

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All But Over

Don’t think. It’s the best advice I can give you. —from Isaac, by Ray McManus This will be my last essay on stocks for the remainder of the Grand Supercycle bull market. The preferred scenario is for the correction underway … Continue reading

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When Words Fail Me

There is always an abundance of stupid stuff going on at big market tops. This one is a stunner: The VIX is a sentiment indicator that shows the implied volatility ahead. Low volatility is associated with rising markets and high … Continue reading

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Smoke Signals

We love because it’s the only true adventure —Nikki Giovanni We got back from the mountains last night and I charted the daily Dow Jones Industrials. We look to have completed an ending diagonal triangle with a throw over: Last … Continue reading

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On Nature’s Way

The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor even that it is a reasonable one.  The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite.  Life is … Continue reading

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On What Infuences My Thinking

Decision Making In Uncertainty  Two Paradigms: Mechanist and Socionomic The Mechanist Paradigm: Action is followed by reaction. Most financial analysts, economists, historians, sociologists and futurists believe that society works the same way. They typically say, Because so-and-so has happened, it … Continue reading

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Antifragility: Nature’s Cure For Dystopia

I try not to finagle God. Some days go better than others, especially during elections years. I ask that God’s will be done, and I mostly sort of mean it. —Anne Lamott To survive, natural systems have to periodically get … Continue reading

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Correlations That Count

But small stalks in the sun speak a harder truth— everything unwilling to change will die, everything that changes only dies a little –Ray McManus, from Red Dirt Jesus Feeling comfy with a 401k full of stocks? Might do to chew … Continue reading

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Mood Trumps Trump

Did you know that stars only look brilliant because we tell them to? That clouds are the sky’s way of hiding the shame of its accent? —Ray McManus You read the news, carefully, I hope. I stare at charts to … Continue reading

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On This Holy Week

A Sweet Lady Departs Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 6:50 pm Mary Constance Commagere Roth passed away after a short illness. Her legacy was to bring Maridel, David, Jack and Martha into the world and to be the nurturing influence that made them marvelous people and wonderful parents. One couldn’t ask … Continue reading

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