Author Archives: rodroth

On Investing: Creating an Edge

Posted on May 16, 2012 by rodroth

The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing —Archilocus We had one once–a hedgehog. Unprepossessing little guy. Hung out in the box we had for him, made a little grumbling sound at night. Quizzical look on … Continue reading →

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Supersize Demise

Posted on May 9, 2012 by rodroth

NBC’s Brian Williams devotes lots of airtime during the evening news this week to a new medical report that asserts the percentage of obese Americans, presently 34%, will rise to 42% in 2030. My immediate response to the assertion is: Nah, no way. Of … Continue reading →

Posted in Socionomics | Leave a comment

More Misconceptions to Dispell

Posted on April 29, 2012 by rodroth

The financial press is full of bull these days. Walking past the news section in the grocery store, I spot the headline for a cover story in Barrons: OUTLOOK MOSTLY SUNNY!!! Bulls have the edge in the big money pool, predicting stocks will rise 10% … Continue reading →

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Clearing Up a Misconception (as if this were possible)

Posted on April 23, 2012 by rodroth

He said, “Rod, you’re loaded up with gold, right?” I said, “You think gold is going to go up?” He said, “Heck yes, with all the money the government is printing now, inflation is going to soar, and gold along … Continue reading →

Posted in Economy, Socionomics | Leave a comment

How Market Tops are Formed

Posted on April 17, 2012 by rodroth

Below is the chart I showed in my post of March 13 ( Top of the Correction at Hand): Here is the same chart, one month later: Breaking below the lower trend line is a strong indication that the top for … Continue reading →

Posted in On Markets | Leave a comment

Socionomics and Presidential Politics

Posted on April 10, 2012 by rodroth

The socionomic hypothesis holds that social mood drives the collective activities in a society, including presidential elections. If social mood is up during a presidential year, the incumbent will get reelected. If it is down, the incumbent is out, usually by a landslide. The … Continue reading →

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Goodby Gerber

Posted on March 24, 2012 by rodroth

 In the 21st century, the U.S. could be the slowly aging leader of a rapidly aging world. —David Brooks, NY Times, 12 March We hold that the huge population bulge of young people with little to do in Arab countries is a problem. That’s … Continue reading →

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Top of the Correction at hand

Posted on March 13, 2012 by rodroth
SPX top

This gallery contains 2 photos.

Corrective waves are, more often than not, ambiguous until the very end. In fact, they can seem to be at their very end, and then fool the analyst, as this one certainly has. That said, I can make a case … Continue reading →

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Regarding Our Attachments

Posted on February 28, 2012 by rodroth

A false sense of security is the only kind there is —Unknown It wouldn’t be so bad for him if things weren’t so good. His business, on the ropes eighteen months ago, has recovered and then some. He is fully staffed again and the work … Continue reading →

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On the American Project

Posted on February 20, 2012 by rodroth
Coming Apart

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A large part of the problem consists of nothing more complicated than our unwillingness to say out loud what we believe –Charles Murray Charles Murray’s goal in his new book, Coming Apart, the State of White America 1960-2010 is “to induce recognition … Continue reading →

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