America Worst

The Zen Master would say if you want to change government, you have to aim at changing corporations, and if you want to change corporations, you first have to change the consumers. Whoa, wait a minute! the consumer? That’s me. You mean I’m the one who has to change?

–Ives Chouinard

We’re not what we used to be. Maybe we never were what we used to be. And now, I feel like a foreigner in my own land, having  never imagined that this country would elect a man like Trump to be president. Nicaragua, maybe, Moldova, sure, But The United States of America? I have friends and family, none of them the least bit deplorable, who decided that the right thing to do was vote for this despicable sub-human monster. Amazing. Not that I liked Hillary, I was just frightened at what a Trump presidency would bring. On the evidence so far, my fears were justified.

That said, this quintessential Ugly American is the perfect man for the moment. The end of a great advance in a civilization comes when the stable values that enabled it to flourish become so bastardized as to do more harm than good, and, desperate for change, we will listen to charlatans skilled  at pandering to our deepest dissatisfactions, selling themselves and their ability to make yuuge changes. Inevitably, they turn out to be bigly persuaders and lousy deliverers.

Trump won’t be the fixer. He is the Dynamic Value that brings about the collapse of America as a going concern. It will happen because his behavior is so egregious that people like me get up off the couch and call our lawmakers and express our concerns and otherwise get involved. That’s Trump’s contribution to change. Thank you, sir.

My thesis is based on three things: 1) The Wave pattern in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is tracing out what appear to be subdivisions of the final move to the top. One more small decline and another new high should cap the entire move, yielding to the next bear market. 2) Sentiment in the financial community is at or near all time highs, which happens WITHOUT FAIL at  important tops. If I were relying on a bank or brokerage firm for advice, I would stay the hell  away from them. 3)  The market run up since the election has been extraordinary, with price momentum indicators registering extremes not seen decades. Strong momentum off a bottom is bullish, and extremely bearish when it comes after an extended bull phase. Market players have been labeling this the Trump market–that’s not good. Trump comes on as a business guy who will get the economy growing again. Hoover had the same aura about him, and he presided over the worst bear market in our history.

It is a reliably consistent contrarian phenomenon at major peaks and bottoms that the expectations for the incoming president turn out to be dead wrong. Reagan was expected to put the nation into an inflationary collapse. He presided over one of our better economic periods.

There is a lot more in the financial and economic pictures to be concerned about, but this will do for now.

Cheers,

Rod

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