I’d rather be a sparrow than a snail
yes I would, if I could, I surely would
—Simon & Garfunkel
The new all time highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index fulfill the best probability forecast given for the market by the Elliott Wave Principal last year. The market is now advancing in an impulse wave that should get the Dow up near 20,000 by fall. After that every investor alive will be a buyer, and it will be time, finally, to fade the buyers.
What follows is the mother of all bear markets–twenty years of value destruction on a scale not seen since 1720-1749. Investors will be eviscerated, as all classes of asset sink to near zero. Savers will suffer, too. Banks will have no deposits and books full of unpayable loans (see Italy now). There will be no financial or economic safety in the ordinary sense of the word.
By next summer, and for the foreseeable future, business as usual will be unusual. Incomes of all kinds-salaries, business profits, pensions and professional practices will steadily decline. It will be a time very much like the 1930s, but more severe. Virtually everyone will need more income. These assertions may seem overwrought, but the signs are unmistakable–the experience of 2007-2009 will seem like a ride at Disney World by comparison.
Street smart men and women will flourish in this environment.
Street Smart: Urban Dictionary
All the education, business savvy, know how and skills that the person has acquired through personal experience, outside the official public education system and outside the family setting (without being taught by family members).
It is not too early to prepare by thinking hard about both incomes and investments. For many, the solution to providing enough income to live will be income patching–finding additional sources of income. This is highly doable and many folks are already into it. The second largest economy in the world is the global cohort known as Debroulliards (See my essay: http://rodroth.com//2012/01/21/on-the-informal-economy/).
For investors the rules change drastically. Buy and hold will no longer work. Trading, or Ninja investing will provide fabulous returns for street smart investors, and it won’t necessarily mean investing in stocks or mutual funds.
There are extraordinary profits to be made by anyone who pays attention to valuation changes in stuff that interests them. It is a matter of patiently building up cash reserves for periods like 2009, when street smart investors took advantage of weak markets to buy houses, cars, boats, and heavy equipment at giveaway prices to trade later when the markets came back.
The future is going to be very bleak for the unawares. For street smart men and women it will be the adventure of a lifetime. Decide now what role you will play. Read Laurence Gonzales’ Deep Survival, Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why. It will inspire you to choose adventure.
I’ve excerpted the common traits Gonzales found among the exceptional people who survived incredible calamity. Note that Rule number 1 is to believe that what you are seeing really is a catastrophe. Most people’s reaction will be denial. They’ll be screwed.
THE RULES OF ADVENTURE
- Perceive, believe (look, see, believe). Even in the initial crisis, survivors’ perceptions and cognitive functions keep working. They might notice the details and may even find some humorous or beautiful. If there is any denial, it is counterbalanced by a solid belief in the clear evidence of their senses. They immediately begin to recognize, acknowledge, and even accept the reality of their situation. “I’ve broken my leg, that’s it. I’m dead,” as Joe Simpson (chapter 13) put it. They may initially blame forces outside themselves, too; but very quickly dismiss that tactic and recognize that everything, good and bad, emanates from within. They see opportunity, even good, in their situation. They move through denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance very rapidly. They “go inside.” Bear in mind, though, that many people, such as Debbie Kiley (chapter 11), may have to struggle for a time before they get there.
- Stay calm (use humor, use fear to focus). In the initial crisis, survivors are making use of fear, not being ruled by it. Their fear often feels like and turns into anger, and that motivates them and makes them sharper. They understand at a deep level about being cool and are ever on guard against the mutiny of too much emotion. They keep their sense of humor and therefore keep calm.
- Think/analyze/plan (get organized; set up small, manageable tasks). Survivors quickly organize, set up routines, and institute discipline. In successful group survival situations, a leader emerges often from the least likely candidate. They push away thoughts that their situation is hopeless. A rational voice emerges and is often actually heard, which takes control of the situation. Survivors perceive that as being split into two people and they “obey” the rational one. It begins with the paradox of seeing reality—how hopeless it would seem to an outside observer—but acting with the expectation of success.
- Take correct, decisive action (be bold and cautious while carrying out tasks). Survivors are able to transform thought into action. They are willing to take risks to save themselves and others. They are able to break down very large jobs into small, manageable tasks. They set attainable goals and develop short term plans to reach them. They are meticulous about doing those tasks well. They deal with what is within their power from moment to moment, hour to hour, day to day. They leave the rest behind.
- Celebrate your successes (take joy in completing tasks). Survivors take great joy from even the smallest successes. That is an important step in creating an ongoing feeling of motivation and preventing the descent into hopelessness. It also provides release from the unspeakable stress of a true survival situation.
- Count your blessings (be grateful—you’re alive). This is how survivors become rescuers instead of victims. There is always someone else they are helping more than themselves, even if that someone is not present. One survivor I spoke to, Yossi Ghinsberg, who was lost for weeks in the Bolivian jungle, hallucinated about a beautiful companion with whom he slept with each night as he traveled. Everything he did, he did for her.
- Play (sing, play mind games, recite poetry, count anything, do mathematical problems in your head). Since the brain and its wiring appear to be the determining factor in survival, this is an argument for expanding and refining it. The more you have learned and experienced of art, music, poetry, literature, philosophy, mathematics and so on, the more resources you will have to fall back on. Just as survivors use patterns and rhythm to move forward in the survival voyage, they use the deeper activities of the intellect to stimulate, calm, and entertain the mind. Counting becomes important, too, and reciting poetry or even a mantra can calm the frantic mind. Movement becomes dance. One survivor who had to walk a long way counted his steps, one hundred at a time, and dedicated each hundred to another person he cared about.Stockdale cites “love of poetry” as an important quality for enduring. “You thirst to remember,” he wrote. “The clutter of all the trivia evaporates from your consciousness and with care you can make deep excursions into past recollections….Verses were hoarded and gone over each day….The person who came into this experiment with reams of already memorized poetry was the bearer of great gifts.”Survivors often cling to talismans. They search for meaning, and the more you know already, the deeper the meaning. They engage the crisis almost as a game. They discover the flow of the expert performer, in whom emotion and thought balance each other in producing action. ”Careful, careful,” they say. But they act joyfully and decisively. Playing also leads to invention, and invention may lead to a new technique, strategy, or a piece of equipment that could save you.
- 8. See the beauty (remember: it’s a vision quest). Survivors are attuned to the wonder of the world. The appreciation of beauty, the feeling of awe, opens the senses. When you see something beautiful, your pupils actually dilate. This appreciation not only relieves stress and creates strong motivations, but it allows you to take in new information more effectively.
- Believe that you will succeed (develop a deep conviction that you’ll live). All the practices just described lead to this point: Survivors consolidate their personalities and fix their determination. Survivors admonish themselves to make no more mistakes, to be very careful, and to do their very best. They become convinced they will prevail if they do those things.
- Surrender (let go of your fear of dying: “put away the pain). Survivors manage pain well. Lauren Elder (chapter 13), who walked out of the Sierra Nevada after surviving a plane crash, wrote that she “stored away the information, My arm is broken.” That sort of thinking is what John Leach calls “resignation without giving up. It is survival by surrender.” Joe Simpson recognized that he would probably die. But it had ceased to bother him, and so he went ahead and crawled off the mountain anyway.
- Do whatever is necessary (be determined; have the will and the skill). Survivors have meta-knowledge: They know their abilities and do not over- or underestimate them. They believe that anything is possible and act accordingly. Play leads to invention, which leads to trying something that might have seemed impossible. When the plane in which Lauren Elder was flying hit the top of a ridge above 12,000 feet, it would have seemed impossible that she could get off alive. She did it anyway, including having to down-climb vertical rock faces with a broken arm. Survivors don’t expect or even hope to be rescued. They are coldly rational about using the world, obtaining what they need, doing what they have to do.
- Never give up (let nothing break your spirit). There is always one more thing you can do. Survivors are not easily frustrated. They are not discouraged by setbacks. They accept that the environment (or the business climate or their health) is constantly changing. They pick themselves up and start the entire process over again, breaking it down into manageable bits. Survivors always have a clear reason for going on. They keep their spirits up by developing an alternate world made up of rich memories to which they can escape. They mine their memory for whatever will keep them occupied. They come to embrace the world in which they find themselves and see opportunity in adversity. In the aftermath, survivors learn from and are grateful for the experience they’ve had.
- (My Rule): Get the book. Read Laurence Gonzales for his magnificent prose, uplifting true stories of surviving, and meticulous research on what gets us through bad times.
Good luck, fellow Ninja!