Monthly Archives: May 2014

On Lessons Learned

…In the first place, there is no other field in which prediction has been essayed with such intensity and with so little result. Economists, statisticians, technicians, business leaders, and bankers, all have had a try at foretelling the future of  … Continue reading

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Of Trends and Portents

The sun shall be turned to darkness, and the moon to blood, before the great and terrible day of the Lord comes. –Joel 2:30 We must, perforce, make an estimate of our financial future. So, shooting from the hip, we extrapolate a trend from the … Continue reading

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Be Prepared

I don’t buy it when they tell me the trading range the market has been trapped in for the last three months can resolve itself by making new highs just as easily as by going down. It’s a lively market … Continue reading

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Grifters at Work

If you see fraud and you don’t say fraud you are a fraud. –Taleb It was an avoidable calamity. From $25 a barrel at the beginning of the new millennium, the price of oil doubled to $50 by 2007, and … Continue reading

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