Monthly Archives: December 2012

More on Forecasts

A violent alertness, the muscularity of risk, though still the secret inward cry: What else, what more? —C. K. Williams  Nassim Taleb hates forecasts and argues that people will take more risk when they have a forecast on the markets than they … Continue reading

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About Forecasting

The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor even that it is a reasonable one.  The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite.  Life is … Continue reading

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Real Estate: Dead Cat Bounce Over?

The history of the market is the history of forgetting —F. J. Chu Ask yourself, do you know anyone that doesn’t think that buying a house now is a good idea? Is it not true that anytime, anyone says, “Man, this is a … Continue reading

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Incerto

“You can’t get there from here” (What a service station attendant in Rome told me when I asked him how to get to my hotel) “I want to live happily in a world I don’t understand,” writes Nassim Taleb. His long awaited book, Antifragile, … Continue reading

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Oil!

Beer drinkers and hell raisers, Baby won’t you come along with me… —Z Z Top  For the second time in the last thirty years, the oil patch is economically beating the socks off the country as a whole. It happened in the seventies when, during … Continue reading

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