Corrective waves are, more often than not, ambiguous until the very end. In fact, they can seem to be at their very end, and then fool the analyst, as this one certainly has.
That said, I can make a case that the final top is going to be in the area of 1405-20 in the S&P 500 Index. The corresponding high in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 13,400-500.
The rally from 11/28 has traced out 4 complete waves, the longest being wave 3, from 12/19 to 2/29.
Wave 4 bottomed on 3/06, and we are now in the fifth wave.
I calculate the probable top by first connecting the ends of waves 2 (12/19) and 4 (3/04) and then drawing a line north from the end of wave 3 (2/29) that creates a parallelogram with the lower line. If volume is heavy today and tomorrow, I would expect a brief throw over through the upper line and immediate collapse. If volume remains low as it has been lately, the upper line ought to contain the move. Either way, we should look for Elliott Wave 3, the most ferocious decline in many years, to get started shortly:
The author makes no representation as to the accuracy of the quoted material, but believes the sources to be reliable. No one should consider any part of this presentation as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities whatsoever.